The war engulfing the Middle East has crossed a new and alarming threshold. On Tuesday, March 17, 2026, according to the media outlet Crux, fragments from an intercepted Iranian missile rained down on Jerusalem's Old City. The debris notably struck the roof of the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate, located just meters from the Basilica of the Holy Sepulchre, the site venerated by Christians as that of Christ's crucifixion, tomb, and resurrection. This event, notably rare for the Holy City in recent conflicts, also affected the vicinity of the Western Wall and the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, illustrating the reach of a confrontation that is now expanding across multiple fronts.
Beyond the Holy Land, the humanitarian consequences of this escalation are dramatic, particularly in Lebanon. Israeli forces have intensified their bombardment of Beirut, targeting infrastructure of the Hezbollah militia. The armed group had initiated rocket fire on northern Israel in late February, in response to the initial U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran. Today, the Israeli army has multiplied evacuation orders in the Lebanese capital and in the south of the country, where brief ground incursions are raising fears of a large-scale invasion. According to the Lebanese government, the death toll from the strikes stands at 850. More than one million people, approximately 20% of the population, have been forced to flee the southern suburbs of Beirut and the southern regions, where recent strikes have claimed seven more lives.
The heart of this conflagration lies in Iran, the target of a vast offensive led by the United States and Israel for over two weeks. Loud explosions were heard again in Tehran on Monday. Speaking anonymously for fear of government reprisals, a resident of the capital described a scene reminiscent of the end of the world, testifying to a strike that pulverized a police station and severely damaged surrounding shops. Obtaining reliable information remains complex due to internet blackouts, continuous strikes, and strict restrictions imposed on journalists. According to the Iranian Red Crescent, the number of victims in the country exceeds 1,300 dead. Israeli army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani stated on Monday that the Jewish state has conducted approximately 7,600 strikes to date, destroying 85% of Iran's air defenses and 70% of its missile launchers. In retaliation, the Islamic Republic regularly targets Israeli territory, where twelve people have perished from missile fire, as well as U.S. bases in the region, causing the deaths of at least thirteen American military personnel.
The expansion of the conflict is directly affecting Gulf countries and their energy infrastructure. In the United Arab Emirates, authorities reported one death in Abu Dhabi, a person killed in their vehicle by an Iranian missile. Simultaneously, drone attacks caused fires at two Emirati oil facilities, in Abu Dhabi and Fujairah. In Dubai, a drone struck a fuel tank near the international airport, the world's busiest for passenger traffic. Although no casualties were reported there, the fire forced authorities to suspend all flights for several hours.
This violence is paralyzing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for one-fifth of the world's oil. Faced with Iranian attacks and threats against commercial shipping, the price of Brent crude has surged 40% since the start of the war, surpassing $100 per barrel on Monday. This situation rekindles fears of a global energy crisis, complicating the task of central banks, threatening to cause food shortages in developing countries, and destabilizing already fragile states.
On the diplomatic front, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged several nations to deploy warships to secure the strait. Speaking from the White House, he stated that many countries were en route, while lamenting a lack of enthusiasm which, in his view, reveals an asymmetry in mutual defense agreements with Washington. While American appeals have turned to China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, no firm commitments have yet been made. Tokyo and Canberra, moreover, indicated on Monday that they had not been officially solicited and have no current intervention plan.
In Europe, diplomats are critical of the lack of clarity in American and Israeli objectives. Ahead of a meeting in Brussels, Kaja Kallas, the head of European Union diplomacy, mentioned discussions on a possible extension of the European naval mission in the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. However, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani opposed such an expansion, preferring to consolidate the fight against piracy in the Red Sea. For his part, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer assured that he was working on a plan to reopen the strait, mentioning the deployment of British anti-mine drones already on site, while insisting on London's firm desire not to be drawn into a wider war.
In an attempt to reassure markets, the director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, recalled that its 32 member countries have a reserve of 1.4 billion barrels, in addition to the 400 million released the previous week to address supply constraints. Meanwhile, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, emphasized in a video published on the social network X that his units are focused on neutralizing Iranian threats to hydrocarbon cargo ships.
Prospects for de-escalation, however, remain distant. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open from Tehran's point of view, but formally excludes the United States, Israel, and their allies. Firmly rejecting any idea of a diplomatic resolution, the minister dismissed as delusional rumors suggesting that Iran was seeking a negotiated outcome, confirming that his country currently desires neither a truce nor talks.