As global fertility rates continue to decline, even majority-Catholic and historically Catholic nations are not immune from demographic collapse, which increasingly threatens to shrink populations below the necessary replacement rate.
Global fertility has been falling for decades, with the problem often more acute in higher-income, industrialized nations, even as fertility rates in many resource-limited developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to rise.
According to data collected by the World Bank, many of the world's most developed countries fall well below the "replacement rate" of fertility—generally about 2.1 births per woman over her lifetime—necessary to maintain a stable population.
In the United States, the overall fertility rate in 2021 was about 1.7, before falling to 1.6 two years later; in the United Kingdom, it was about 1.6 in 2021; in Greece, it was about 1.4. Japan and South Korea have some of the world's lowest birth rates, at 1.3 and 0.81, respectively.
For years, Catholic populations have been associated with high fertility rates, partly because the Church forbids artificial contraception and has long taught that children are, in the words of the Second Vatican Council, "the supreme gift of marriage."
Yet, fertility rates below the replacement threshold can be seen even in countries with majority-Catholic populations or historically high numbers of Catholics. A recent roundtable at the Catholic University of America, moderated by New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, examined the various reasons for this phenomenon, including the loss of religious faith and shifting cultural values.
Some countries with large Catholic populations still show high fertility rates: Angola, for example, is over 50% Catholic and has a fertility rate of 5.6, well above the global average. Paraguay, meanwhile, is about 90% Catholic and has a fertility rate of 2.5, which is above the replacement threshold.
Other countries, long known for their high rates of Catholicism, nevertheless have fertility rates well below the replacement threshold: Poland, with over 90% Catholics, has a fertility rate of 1.3, while Spain, with 75% Catholics, has an even lower fertility rate of 1.2. Mexico, which is over 80% Catholic, has a fertility rate of 1.8, placing it below the replacement threshold.
A 2012 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that "heavily Catholic countries" in Europe in the early 1970s "had a fertility rate nearly half a child per woman higher" than the non-Catholic countries studied. Yet, by the end of the 20th century, those same Catholic countries had fertility rates significantly lower than the non-Catholic countries.
According to the 2012 study, this decline could be attributed to the Catholic Church "withdrawing, in the mid-1960s, from providing a variety of family-friendly services," including "education, health, social protection, and other social services," thereby making it more costly to have children. Furthermore, polls show that a large majority of Catholics believe birth control is acceptable, while other data indicates that a large majority of Catholic women use some form of artificial contraception.
Church leaders, for their part, have sounded the alarm about declining fertility rates in recent years.
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The Vatican announced on Thursday that Pope Francis will speak at an event on Italy's demographic crisis, as the country's birth rate is at a historic low.
In the past, the Holy Father has described low birth numbers as "a figure that reveals great concern for the future." He has criticized what he describes as the "social climate in which starting a family has turned into a titanic effort, instead of being a shared value that everyone recognizes and supports."
In 2022, Francis also called the collapse of fertility rates a "social emergency," stating that while the crisis is "not immediately perceptible, like other problems that occupy the news," it is nonetheless "very urgent" insofar as low birth rates "impoverish everyone's future."
At a United Nations event this month, Archbishop Gabriele Caccia stated that contraception and population control are not the key to sustainable development, but that it is essential to ensure that all men, women, and children have the opportunity to realize their full potential.
In 2019, the Bishop of San Sebastián, Bishop José Ignacio Munilla Aguirre, warned of the "bleak panorama of Spain in terms of birth rate," a figure he said constitutes "one of the most evident signs of the crisis of values afflicting the West."
Provisional data released last month by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows the U.S. fertility rate hit a record low in 2023, falling to just over 1.6 births per woman, a 2% drop from the previous year.
This article was originally published in English by Catholic News Agency (Article Link).